DomModel

Super Bowl

This is the full model, complete with an estimate of one’s edge on a -110 line.

For an explanation of how the model works, click here.
For information on backtesting that was done prior to the 2019 season, click here.

cover_prob is the probability that a given team covers its spread. cover_edge is the wager’s expectation on a -110 line. Keep in mind that the model does NOT account for any injuries.

Current line:

team_awayteam_homecover_teamcover_spreadcover_probcover_edge
San Francisco 49ersKansas City ChiefsKC-151.04%-2.56%

Opening line:

team_awayteam_homecover_teamcover_spreadcover_probcover_edge
San Francisco 49ersKansas City ChiefsSF+1.550.54%-3.51%

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