Week 6

This is the full model, complete with an estimate of one’s edge on a -110 line.

For an explanation of how the model works, click here.
For information on backtesting that was done prior to the 2019 season, click here.

cover_prob is the probability that a given team covers its spread. cover_edge is the wager’s expectation on a -110 line. Keep in mind that the model does NOT account for any injuries.

Washington RedskinsMiami DolphinsWAS-3.561.09%16.62%
New Orleans SaintsJacksonville JaguarsNO+1.053.51%2.15%
Houston TexansKansas City ChiefsKC-5.053.38%1.92%
Pittsburgh SteelersLos Angeles ChargersPIT+6.552.68%0.57%
Tennessee TitansDenver BroncosTEN+2.552.61%0.45%
San Francisco 49ersLos Angeles RamsLAR-3.552.19%-0.36%
Atlanta FalconsArizona CardinalsATL-2.551.77%-1.16%
Seattle SeahawksCleveland BrownsSEA-1.051.72%-1.27%
Cincinnati BengalsBaltimore RavensCIN+11.551.58%-1.53%
Philadelphia EaglesMinnesota VikingsPHI+3.051.35%-1.98%
New York GiantsNew England PatriotsNYG+16.551.21%-2.24%
Detroit LionsGreen Bay PackersDET+4.550.86%-2.91%
Dallas CowboysNew York JetsNYJ+7.050.62%-3.37%
Carolina PanthersTampa Bay BuccaneersTB+2.050.0%-4.55%

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