Week 11

This is the full model, complete with an estimate of one’s edge on a -110 line.

For an explanation of how the model works, click here.
For information on backtesting that was done prior to the 2019 season, click here.

cover_prob is the probability that a given team covers its spread. cover_edge is the wager’s expectation on a -110 line. Keep in mind that the model does NOT account for any injuries.

Buffalo BillsMiami DolphinsBUF-5.557.81%10.36%
New Orleans SaintsTampa Bay BuccaneersNO-5.552.61%0.43%
Pittsburgh SteelersCleveland BrownsPIT+2.552.05%-0.63%
Kansas City ChiefsLos Angeles ChargersKC-3.551.55%-1.58%
New York JetsWashington RedskinsNYJ+1.051.49%-1.69%
Dallas CowboysDetroit LionsDAL-4.551.18%-2.29%
Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ersARI+11.551.17%-2.32%
Cincinnati BengalsOakland RaidersCIN+10.551.15%-2.35%
Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersATL+5.550.94%-2.75%
Chicago BearsLos Angeles RamsCHI+7.050.83%-2.97%
Jacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis ColtsJAX+3.050.82%-2.98%
Denver BroncosMinnesota VikingsDEN+10.550.0%-4.55%
Houston TexansBaltimore RavensHOU+4.050.0%-4.55%
New England PatriotsPhiladelphia EaglesNE-3.550.0%-4.55%

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