DomModel

Conference Round

This is the full model, complete with an estimate of one’s edge on a -110 line.

For an explanation of how the model works, click here.
For information on backtesting that was done prior to the 2019 season, click here.

cover_prob is the probability that a given team covers its spread. cover_edge is the wager’s expectation on a -110 line. Keep in mind that the model does NOT account for any injuries.

team_awayteam_homecover_teamcover_spreadcover_probcover_edge
Green Bay PackersSan Francisco 49ersGB+7.556.36%7.6%
Tennessee TitansKansas City ChiefsTEN+7.556.1%7.1%

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