The Bears and Monday Night Football

If you’re following the lines - congratulations on trying by the way - you may have noticed the Bears are +3.5 tonight. This is a serious movement away from the model, since we recommended you take them at +2.5 on Tuesday. There’s always a question on how to handle these type of situations. As always,... Continue Reading →

Recommended Bets: Week 10

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

edit 4:03PM EST 11/16/20: we recommend adding an additional unit on CHI, which has moved from +2.5 to +3.5.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
TNF 8:20PMIND @ TENIND +2.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMTB @ CARTB -4.51 unit
SUN 1:00PMHOU @ CLEHOU +3.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMPHI @ NYGNYG +3.51 unit
SUN 4:25PMCIN @ PITPIT -7.53 units
SUN 4:25PMSF @ NOSF +9.01 unit
MNF 8:15PMMIN @ CHICHI +2.51 unit

Week 9 Recap: The Swongs Are Real

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers. Let’s get into it:

Recommended Wagers: New Orleans and Jacksonville

This blog takes a look at the Saints getting 5.5 vs the Bucs on Monday Night, as well as the Jags getting 7 vs the Texans. In one game we're betting against arguably the best team in football. In the other, we're betting on a 6th round rookie QB making his NFL debut. What could go wrong?

Recommended Bets: Week 9

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
TNF 8:20PMGB @ SFSF +5.52 units
SUN 4:25PMMIA @ ARIARI -4.51 unit
SNF 8:20PMNO @ TBNO +5.51 unit
SUN 1:00PMHOU @ JAXJAX +7.01 unit
SUN 4:05PMLV @ LACLAC -1.51 unit
SUN 1:00PMDEN @ ATLATL -4.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMBAL @ INDIND +2.51 unit

Sample sizes and wager sizes

The most difficult task Brady and I face is not figuring out what to bet but figuring out how much to bet.  While the question of “how much to wager” was definitively settled in 1956 by J. L. Kelly Jr, the so-called “Kelly criterion” suffers from drawbacks that make it difficult to implement in practice. ... Continue Reading →

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