Bet the Saints to Win Super Bowl 55

Our recommendations for the playoffs are born from similar methodology found elsewhere on this site.  Advanced NFL statistics are considered alongside our power rankings and a team’s playoff seed to model their probability of winning Super Bowl 55 (I’ve given up on the roman numerals). While we feel Kansas City stands the best shot of... Continue Reading →

Recommended Bets: Wild Card Weekend

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
SAT 1:05PMIND @ BUFIND +6.51 unit
SAT 8:15PMTB @ WASWAS +8.53 units
SUN 1:05PMBAL @ TENTEN +3.01 unit
SUN 4:40PMCHI @ NOCHI +9.51 unit

Model Context: Week 17

As explained here, week 17 is chaos. As expected, the model spit out some interesting stuff. I wanted to take some time to explain the results, which can be seen here. The essence of machine learning is to feed a model data that the machine can then use to make decisions. Data being the key... Continue Reading →

Recommended Bets: Week 17

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model’s output. Full results for all games are here.

Potentially more coming depending on news.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
SUN 1:00PMNYJ @ NENE -3.02 units
SUN 1:00PMBAL @ CINCIN +12.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMDET @ MINDET +7.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMDAL @ NYGNYG +3.01 unit
SUN 4:25PMGB @ CHICHI +5.51 unit

2020 Was for the Dogs

If you follow us religiously (and damn it, you should) you’ll have noticed our strong preference towards underdogs the past few weeks. Theoretically, the balancing pass we undertook in mid-October should have eliminated any inherent bias the model holds towards favorites or dogs.  The model actually evolves, mildly, each week of the season, taking into... Continue Reading →

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