Model Context: Week 17

As explained here, week 17 is chaos. As expected, the model spit out some interesting stuff. I wanted to take some time to explain the results, which can be seen here. The essence of machine learning is to feed a model data that the machine can then use to make decisions. Data being the key... Continue Reading →

Recommended Bets: Week 17

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model’s output. Full results for all games are here.

Potentially more coming depending on news.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
SUN 1:00PMNYJ @ NENE -3.02 units
SUN 1:00PMBAL @ CINCIN +12.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMDET @ MINDET +7.01 unit
SUN 1:00PMDAL @ NYGNYG +3.01 unit
SUN 4:25PMGB @ CHICHI +5.51 unit

2020 Was for the Dogs

If you follow us religiously (and damn it, you should) you’ll have noticed our strong preference towards underdogs the past few weeks. Theoretically, the balancing pass we undertook in mid-October should have eliminated any inherent bias the model holds towards favorites or dogs.  The model actually evolves, mildly, each week of the season, taking into... Continue Reading →

Week 16 Recap: An Oddly Quiet Week

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers.

Recommended Wager: Denver (+3.0) over LA Chargers

Our second bet of the week is the Broncos (+3.0) over the Chargers. Inside is a rock solid argument as to why this spread is just flat out wrong, if you're into iron glad arguments with zero holes. If you dislike this bet, congratulations, you suffer from recency bias.

Recommended Bets: Week 16

Recommended bets for the week, based on the model's output. Full results for all games are here.

TimeMatchupWagerSizing
SUN 1:00PMATL @ KCATL +10.51 unit
SUN 4:05PMDEN @ LACDEN +3.051 unit

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