NFL betting, done brilliantly
| TEN @ NE | 1/4 8:15PM |
| Wager: | TEN +5 |
| Cover Probability: | 54.32% |
| Cover Edge: | 3.69% |
| MIN @ NOR | 1/5 1:05PM |
| Wager | MIN +7.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.9% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.9% |
| BUF @ HOU | 1/4 4:35PM |
| Wager: | BUF +2.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.85% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.81% |
| PHI @ SEA | 1/5 4:4PM |
| Wager | PHI +1.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.67% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.45% |
Recapping the last week of the season that ended up a very tilting loss and my bed covered in my own tears.
Part 1 of two, breaking down the Seahawks getting 3.5 points on Sunday Night Football and the Panthers getting 13 against the Saints.
| NO @ CAR | 12/29 1:00PM |
| Wager: | CAR +13 |
| Cover Probability: | 58.69% |
| Cover Edge: | 12.05% |
| SF @ SEA | 12/29 8:20PM |
| Wager | SEA +3.5 |
| Cover Probability: | 54.34% |
| Cover Edge: | 3.74% |
| LAC @ KC | 12/29 1:00PM |
| Wager: | LAC +9 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.82% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.75% |
| CHI @ MIN | 12/29 1:00PM |
| Wager | CHI +1 |
| Cover Probability: | 53.48% |
| Cover Edge: | 2.75% |
I recap a very friendly week 11 slate where we took down all 3 of our bets, putting our season-long win rate at 59%. Life is good in the gambling streets.
The model calls for a razor thin 0.43% edge betting the Saints, but read on here to find out why we're green lighting this game anyway.
Week 7 was kind to us, but it could have been kinder. We went 3-1 on our bets, with 3 sweat free covers and a very close loss.
Part 2 of the breakdown covers the Chargers getting 2 points against the Titans, and the Saints getting 3 against the Bears.
We went an even 1 - 1 this week that was capped by a tough loss Sunday night that I'm blaming on Kellen Moore, justified or not.
One week after fading the Cowboys, the model is now a believer. We expect the Kellen Moore lead offense to head into New Orleans and win easily.
