First and Thirty
NFL Betting, done brilliantly.
Analysis
9 de febrero de 2024Brady,Super Bowl LVIII,ProThe bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site (or were manually hunted). When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the...29 de enero de 2024Champ Round 2023,Recap,BradyWelcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. Curious how we did in...27 de enero de 2024Brady,Prop Bets,Champ Round 2023The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site. When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than...27 de enero de 2024Brady,Recommended Wager,Champ Round 2023Detroit (+7.0) @ San Francisco Power rankings: Detroit 7, San Fran 2 When Detroit has the ball: The Lions offense is 5th in DVOA (7th pass, 4th run) and 8th in EPA/play. They feature one of the best offensive lines in football, although there are a few injuries to make note of. C Frank Ragnow -...26 de enero de 2024Brady,Division Round 2023,RecapWelcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. Curious how we did in...More Posts