Recommended Bet: LA Chargers (-6.5) over Tennessee

by Brady

Tennessee @ Los Angles Chargers
Vegas:
LAC -6.5
DomModel: LAC -11.77
Recommendation: LAC -6.5

Key injuries:
Tennessee Titans:
-TE Delanie Walker was placed on IR with a dislocated ankle (I don’t get how that’s possible. Best of luck, Delanie).
-LB Derrick Morgan (shoulder) was injured week 6 and did not return. He did not practice all week and is OUT week 7.
-LB Wesley Woodyard injured his shoulder week 4. He was INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He was limited in practice on Wednesday (10/17), but practiced in full on Thursday (10/18) and Friday (10/19). He will play week 7.
-LB Will Compton (hamstring) was INACTIVE week 6. He missed practiced all week and is OUT week 7.
-S Kenny Vaccaro injured his elbow week 4. He was INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He was limited in practice all week and is QUESTIONABLE for week 7.

Los Angeles Chargers:
-WR Travis Benjamin re-injured his foot week 4. He was INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He was limited in practice Wednesday (10/17) and Thursday (10/18), and practiced in full on Friday (10/19). He is QUESTIONABLE, but seems like he can play if needed.
-RT Joe Barksdale suffered a knee injury week 1. He was INACTIVE weeks 2 – 6. Interestingly, he wasn’t listed on the injury report at all this week. He should return.
-DE Joey Bosa was INACTIVE every week with a foot injury. He is out “indefinitely.” The latest (9/26) is he will be out at least 8 weeks. He has not practiced this week (Wednesday/Thursday/Friday). He will remain OUT week 7.
-LB Kyzir White (knee) is was INACTIVE weeks 5 and 6. He did not practice Wednesday (10/17), Thursday (10/18), or Friday (10/19). He is OUT week 7.
-LB Jatavis Brown (groin) was INACTIVE week 6 and was limited in practice Wednesday (10/17), Thursday (10/18), and Friday (10/19). He is QUESTIONABLE week 7.

Breakdown:
When Tennessee has the ball:
Which Titans team had a better offense: the 2018 Tennessee Titans, or the 1971 TC Williams Titans that was portrayed in the popular sports movie, “Remember the Titans?” The model doesn’t know anything about high school football from the early 70s (one of its few limitations), but I’m taking Denzel Washington’s offense all day.

It’s pretty bad all around. Marcus Mariota was forced to come back from an elbow injury earlier than he probably should have because of a concussion to backup Blaine Gabbert. The offensive line has vastly under-performed. Sure, part of that has been because of the injuries to pro bowl tackles Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin, but even with both healthy last week they still surrendered ELEVEN (11) sacks to the Ravens. Lewan and Conklin will round into from, but the interior of the line has problems that aren’t going anywhere.

After losing TE Delanie Walker of the season, the Titans are left with Corey Davis as the only viable receiving option. Meanwhile, both Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry have performed poorly on the ground.

I don’t even think Denzel could turn this offense around (jk, he totally could).

Los Angeles’s defense:
The Chargers had to deal with some devastating injuries to start the year, mainly DE Joey Bosa (still out) and CB Jason Verrett (done for the year). Despite this, they’ve still been respectable. The most impressive part has been their secondary. CB Casey Hawyward started off slow, but has played well the last few games. He’s teamed up with Trevor Williams at corner. Jahleel Addae and Derwin James have both played well consistently at safety. Losing Verett for the second year in a row could not have been fun for LAC, but this is a solid secondary even still.

Without Bosa, their pass rush lives and dies with Melvin Ingram. That’s been a problem as teams specifically scheme to stop Ingram, and nobody is there to take advantage of the inevitable 1 on 1 matchups. Difficulty in setting the edge and lack of depth along the defensive interior has lead to an overall bad run defense for Los Angeles.

TL;DR Conclusion: The Chargers have a middle of the pack defense this year, but the Titans are not an offense that can exploit this.

When Los Angeles has the ball:
This offense is fun to watch. Philip Rivers is enjoying another fine season, and he has the weaponry to work with. Rivers is primarily targeting Keenan Allen at receiver and Melvin Gordon out of the backfield. They also have solid complimentary pieces in the Williams’s (Tyrell and Mike), as well as Austin Eckler when he comes in for Gordon. Gordon and Eckler are make up one of the better backfields in the game.

The biggest weak spot for the Chargers has been their line. They should get RT Joe Barksdale back this week. Barksdale hasn’t played since week 1, but he’s strangely not on the injury report at all this week. I’d at least expect him to be limited, but apparently he’s good to go. That won’t magically fix all their line issues, but it will help.

Titan’s defense:
The Titans have been a mediocre defense for most of the year. The best part of their defense has been their secondary – Logan Ryan and Adoree’ Jackson have both played well at corner, while Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro anchor the defense well at safety. You may have noticed I left out Malcolm Butler. That’s because Malcolm Butler has fucking sucked.

Against the run they’ve had major issues. There’s a lot to be desired outside of DT Jurrell Casey.

TL:DR Conclusion: This isn’t a horrible Titans defense, but I still prefer the juggernaut that is the Chargers offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon and Eckler have a field day against the Titans run defense.

Oh, and have I mentioned the hook? Yeah, we’re on the right side of the hook. Read more about that here.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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