We’re officially half way through the NFL season. This week we did something a bit different and recommended a teaser. The model recommended two teams that fell into wong teaser range, so the recommendation was to go that avenue rather than two separate bets. Two seperate spread bets would have also been just fine, but we’re always going to try to recommend the bet with the biggest edge.
Let’s start with the TNFS (Thursday Night Fuck Show).
Miami (+7.5) over Houston
Vegas: HOU -7.5
DomModel: HOU -3.434
Recommendation: MIA +7.5
Yeah, we went back to Brock Osweiler, and we lost again. This bet was recommended by the model and also gave us the hook (reminder: the model has no clue what a hook is).
I’ve gone into the Osweiler debate and our logic behind it a few times now. The long and short is this: Ryan Tannehill has been Osweiler-esque throughout the entire season. As a result, we do not need to make any crazy adjustments. We have data on how the Dolphins offense works with an incredibly low caliber QB.
As for the game, Osweiler was predictably horrible. He routinely missed open receivers, then had an ugly interception. He even had some luck on his side after a what-the-fuck play that probably should have been ruled a fumble was controversially overturned as an incomplete pass.
On the defensive side, Miami was terrible. Particularly along the defensive line, the Dolphins were dominated in the trenches. That’s particularly noteworthy since the Texans offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Once Watson was able to get time to throw, he took advantaged of busted overages to hit both Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins for big touchdowns.
Ugly all around.
Final score: Houston 42, Miami 23
Two Team Tease: Pittsburgh (-2) over Cleveland and Carolina (+8) over Baltimore
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Vegas: PIT -8
DomModel: PIT -9.876
Let’s start with Pittsburgh. This was an easy one against the Browns: Big Ben and Antonio Brown hooked up for a pair of touchdowns, and James Connor DOMINATED. Connor had 146 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground, as well as another 66 yards in the air. On the defensive side, the Steelers were able to routinely pressure QB Baker Mayfield and were able to systematically limit big plays. It was a slow start for Pittsburgh, but they dominated. It was so bad that Cleveland literally cleaned house after the loss, firing both HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley.
Final score: Pittsburgh 33, Cleveland 18
Baltimore @ Carolina
Vegas: CAR +2
DomModel: CAR +1.408
The other side of the tease was another blow out for us. Carolina wasn’t overly dominant on offense, but they took care of the ball and made the most of their red zone trips (11 plays, 4 TDs). Newton hit 7 different receivers while throwing 2 touchdowns and zero picks. The Ravens had the opposite problem – Flacco threw 2 picks and had a completion percentage under 60%. The Panthers defense played incredibly well, the secondary covered and the front 7 was able to pressure Flacco.
Final score: Carolina 36, Buffalo 21
Now we get to the record. Dom and I talked about this a lot (aka we exchanged a couple texts), but our record is going to be spreads ONLY. It’s really, really difficult to track things when you mix in teases, moneylines, etc. This means that the tease for this week gets counted as two separate bets: CAR +2 and PIT -8. It also means that the week 1 Baltimore moneyline recommendation gets counted as a -7.5 spread bet.
This means that if Baltimore won that week 1 game but did NOT cover the 7.5 point spread, we would count it as a loss on our record even though we recommended a winning bet. Essentially, the recommendations will do better from a pure profit stand point than our record in the long run.
The reason why I’m counting it like that is to keep things consistent. I want to be open about our record and how we’re doing. In future recaps, I’ll list out all of our non spread bets so there is no confusion.
If we can find a better way to do that, I’ll switch it up.
That’s it for now, bitches. See you in week 9.