Recommended Bet: NY Giants (-1.5) over Tampa Bay

by Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ NY Football Giants
Vegas: NYG -1.5
DomModel: NYG -6.622
Recommendation: NYG -1.5

Key injuries:
Tamap Bay Buccaneers:
-RB Ronald Jones (hamstring) was injured week 8. He was INACTIVE weeks 9 and 10. He is OUT for week 11.
-RG Evan Smith (hip) has been placed on IR (effective 11/13).
-DT Vinny Curry (ankle) was INACTIVE week 10. He is OUT for week 11.
-LB Kwon Alexander (torn ACL) is out for the year.
-LB Lavonte David (knee) is OUT for week 11.
-CB Vernon Hargreaves was placed on season ending IR (shoulder).
-CB M.J. Stewart (foot) was INACTIVE weeks 9 and 10. He is OUT for week 11.
-FS Justin Evans (toe) is OUT for week 11.
-S Chris Conte (knee) has been placed on IR.

New York Giants:
-C Jon Halapio fractured his fibula and ankle against the Cowboys in week 2. He has been placed on IR.

Breakdown:
When Tampa Bay has the ball:
The Bucs offense has been flashy at times. They dropped a 48 burger on the Saints, 29 on the Falcons, and 34 on the Bengals. As Shania Twain once said, “that don’t impress me much.”

They also barely hit double digits on the Bears (ok, understandable), and just 3 last week against the Redskins. They have no earthly idea which QB to throw out there (it’ll be Fitzy this week). The model hates inconsistency, and I have a feeling that’s why we’ve been picking on them a bit.

Speaking of inconsistency, if you’ve read this column before, you know exactly how I feel about Fitzpatrick. He could throw as many interceptions as he has kids, or he could throw just as many touchdowns as he has kids. The only thing that’s consistent about the man is his sperm count.

As for the rest of the Bucs offense, their offensive line has been mediocre all year. They have virtually zero run game, as 2018 2nd round pick Ronald Jones continues to be out. They do, however, have explosive weaponry that can crumble any defense. Desean Jackson is a high aDOT burner, Mike Evans is an all pro, and Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries have been decent complimentary pieces.

NY Giants defense:
They are about as consistent as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s sperm count in that they consistently suck. There’s really nothing positive to say. They don’t rush the passer well (where has Oliver Vernon been?). They can’t stop the run, especially after trading Damon “Snacks” Harrison to the Lions. They can’t cover, even after cutting Eli “my bad” Apple.  They just suck, all around.

TL;DR Conclusion: The Bucs offense is definitely capable of running wild on the Giants defense, but which quarterback will show up?

When NY Giants has the ball:
The Giants offense has not played well so far this year, and that’s very understandable since they don’t have a quarterback on their roster.

Image result for Eli Manning

Their offensive line has been terrible, but I’ll give credit to LT Nate Solder who has come along in the past few weeks.

We all know the story everywhere else. 2nd overall pick Saquon Barkely does what he can behind the line, and is one hell of a pass catcher out of the backfield. My favorite part of watching the Giants is seeing Eli check for an open receiver for half a second, then immediately dumping the ball off to Saquon, only to have him break numerous tackles and run 20 yards across the field for a gain of 2.

Then there’s Odell Beckham Jr, who would probably break every record in the game if he had a QB throwing him the ball.

Image result for odell beckham jr

The final significant piece is Sterling Shepard, who runs most of his routes out of the slot. Shepard started to catch fire week 3, his receiving yardage: 80 > 77 > 75 > 37 > 167, but has gone 34 > 9 since. He’ll have a great chance to bounce back this week.

Tampa Bay’s defense:
Yeah, “defense,” I use that term lightly. They are arguably the worst in the league, and there’s nothing to think they’ll be any better here.

Let’s start with injuries. The following are projected starters who will not be playing:
-Run stopper/DT Vinny Curry (ankle).
-LB Kwon Alexander tore his ACL week 7.
-All purpose LB Lavonte David (knee).
-Slot CB Vernon Hargreaves has been out since week 1.
-Slot CB M.J. Stewart (foot) hasn’t played since week 8.
-FS Justin Evans (toe) is out this week.
-S Chris Conte (knee) has been out since week 3.

It was probably ugly to begin with, now they’re forced to put parking cones out there.

TL:DR Conclusion: A series of trained monkeys could put points on this defense.

The model likes the Giants. They’re at home and incredibly healthy against a very banged up Bucs team. Let’s roll.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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