Championship Round Recap

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What a Sunday. What a fucking Sunday. With both games featuring four of the best offenses in the league and both games within a 3 point spread, we knew we had something special in the works. But both games going into OT with both road dogs taking the win? Football is simply the best.

From a gambling perspective, we decided not to bet anything. Even as lines moved on and off a crucial 3 point threshold, the model was simply too close to the actual spread for us to feel like we had any sort of edge. Here is how the games looked:

LAR @ NO01/20 3:05 PM
Model:-2.879
Vegas:-3.5
Differential:0.621
Wager:LAR 3.5
NE @ KC01/20 6:40 PM
Model:-3.039
Vegas:-3
Differential:-0.039
Wager:KC -3.0

For the Rams/Saints game, that line ended up moving to 3. The Pats/Chiefs game stayed steady at 3 for the most part. The fact that the model was predicting the spreads this closely gives us further confidence in it, but it also just sucks that we can’t make money off these games.

But you know, that was just fine with me. These games were so entertaining — bullshit non-calls aside — that you didn’t need to bet them to enjoy watching.

Here’s where we stand going into the super bowl.

YTD Results: 30-26-1 (54%)
Week 1: 1-2-1
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 3-0
Week 4: 1-1
Week 5: 0-3
Week 6: 2-1
Week 7: 1-2
Week 8: 2-1
Week 9: 3-2
Week 10: 1-2
Week 11: 3-0
Week 12: 2-1
Week 13: 2-1
Week 14: 1-3 
Week 15: 0-2
Week 16: 2-1 
Week 17: 2-1 
Wildcard Round: 2-1
Divisional Round: No Action
Conference Championship: No Action

I’ll have some fun with the blog over the next two weeks. Though we won’t necessarily be able to bet the spread on the super bowl either — I’ll still follow the action and will get some blogs up about what to expect in the game. I’ll also look for some prop bets and will get some blogs up about that. See you bitches out there.

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