Breakdown: Miami (+14.5) over Pittsburgh

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Miami @ Pittsburgh
Wager: MIA +14.5
Cover Probability: 55.15%
Cover Edge: 5.29%

Key Injuries:
Miami Dolphins: (Week 5 bye)
-C Daniel Kilgore (knee) was INACTIVE week 7 and did not practice on Thursday and Friday.
-DE Avery Moss (concussion/ankle) was INACTIVE week 7 and limited in practice on Thursday and Friday.
-CB Xavien Howard (knee) was INACTIVE week 6 and 7. He was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday.
-S Reshad Jones (chest) was INACTIVE week 7 and did not practice on Thursday or Friday.

Pittsburgh Steelers: (Week 7 bye)
-QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) was injured week 2 and is on IR.
-QB Mason Rudolph (concussion) was injured week 5 and INACTIVE weeks 6. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday.
-WR James Washington (shoulder) was INACTIVE week 6. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday.
-RB Jaylen Samuels (knee) was INACTIVE week 6. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday.
-LB Mark Barron (hamstring) was INACTIVE week 6. He practiced in full on Thursday and was limited on Friday.
-LB Stephon Tuitt (pectoral) was injured week 6 and is on IR.
-LB TJ Watt (oblique) was injured week 6. He was limited on Thursday and practiced in full on Friday.
-CB Steve Nelson (groin) was INACTIVE week 6. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday.
-CB Joe Haden (groin) was injured week 6. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday.

Spread Breakdown:
The line opened at 16, and was quickly bet down to 14.5. From there, it’s bounced between 14 and 15, and currently sits at 14. The model grabbed it at 14.5, so that’s what our recommendation is best on.

Matchup breakdown
When Miami has the ball:
For years football fans have been wondering how the best college team would fair against an NFL team. Finally, the long aged question will be answered on Monday night as the University of Miami Dolphins take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Dolphins offense has zero redeeming qualities. Seriously. There isn’t a single good player out there. Their line has allowed 88 pressures this season, 4th worst in the NFL. Their best receiver is Preston Williams — I don’t think I need to add to that. Kenyan Drake is their leading rusher getting 3.7 yards per carry. At QB has been Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, neither have been good — but God himself couldn’t put up points with these 10 guys surrounding them.

They’ll be up against a Steelers defense that ranks 9th overall in DVOA. Though they had a plethora of injuries going into week 6, they had a bye week 7 and that’s given them time to rest up. Their best pass rusher is TJ Watt, who was out week 6 with an oblique injury, but he practiced in full on Friday. He teams up with Bud Depree to form what’s been a productive pass rush. On the inside, Tyson Alualu and Cameron Heyward play well against the run. Their weaknesses are their linebackers and safeties who have all struggled in coverage. To beat them, teams have relied on their receivers getting open off the line of scrimmage and their QB getting the ball out quickly. We don’t expect the Dolphins to have a ton of success, but we got 14.5 points to work with.

When Pittsburgh has the ball:
The Steelers offense has naturally struggled since losing Ben Roethlisberger week 2. Their backup, Mason Rudolph, took a nasty hit in week 5 where it looked like he literally died. Rudolph has since been resurrected and appears healthy enough to return to take on the Dolphins. He’s attempted 94 passes this season, and he’s averaging 6.9 yards per attempt and a 67% completion percentage. Those numbers aren’t THAT bad, but his DVOA of 4.3% and his PFF grade of 51.5 are poor. Their offensive line has it’s ups and downs — the left side (Alejandro Villanueva and Ramon Foster) have surprisingly struggled in pass protection, but RT Matt Feiler has been an immovable object on the other side. At receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster is their top option, but he’s in a bit of a sophomore slump that has people wondering if he’s good enough to be a true number 1. To be fair to JuJu, he doesn’t have a ton of help — Pittsburgh’s other receivers are a couple of duds in Diontae Johnson and James Washington. On the ground, James Connor is a workhorse back — but he’s only averaging 3.2 yards per carry.

In terms of Miami’s defense, yeah – they’re also terrible. You know the drill by now.

So that’s it. The model thinks Vegas is throwing too large of spreads with the Dolphins, so we’re back on them for the second week in a row. It worked out wonderfully last week against Buffalo, let’s hope for the same this week.

That’s it for now, bitches.

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