Week 11 Recap: Our Win Rate is Unsustainable

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Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results don’t matter, but we want to track how we did and keep up to date stats, so we’ll use this space to see what happened. It’s always interesting to look at both your wins and loses and see what happened in the game — some bad calls or injuries to your team can sway things massively.

Buffalo @ Miami
Recommended Bet: BUF -5.5
Cover Probability: 57.81%
Cover Edge: 10.36%

By far the model’s favorite bet of the week, the Dolphins of Miami hosted the Buffalo Bills in an attempt to answer the season-long question: what the fuck are they doing? Are they tanking? They’ve won two games now and have no shot at the number one pick. Also, they keep covering the god damn spread. Should we be betting them more?

Luckily, the model doesn’t care about any of that crap. It sees the Cadillac of bad teams in the year of crap teams only giving 5.5 points to the Bills. Maybe we should bet against them? Deal!

This one was sweat free, as the Bills jumped out to a 16-0 lead and never looked back. Josh Allen made a few of his normal dangerous deep ball passes, but he wasn’t playing a defense that could take advantage of it. Overall, Allen went 21/33 (63%), 256 yards, 7.8 YPA, 3 TDs, and 0 picks. His favorite receiver was once again John Brown, who hauled in 9 of his 14 targets for 137 yards and 2 TDs. You mean the Dolphins don’t have anyone good enough to stop Brown? Go figure.

Due to the lopsided score, the Dolphins had to abandon the run and ask Fitzpatrick to drop back 45 times. To his credit, he played well — completing 71% of those passes and gaining 7.2 yards per attempt. With the way the Bills offense was rolling, however, it was only enough to keep the game from becoming a blow out.

#MiamiTracker Update: We are now 5-2 betting Dolphins games.

Final score: Buffalo 37, Miami 20

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
Wager: NOR -5.5
Cover Probability: 52.61%
Cover Edge: 0.43%

While John Brown was running circles around the Dolphins defense, the Saints were cruising against the Bucs as well. The Saints jumped out to a 20-0 lead in the 2nd quarter and that was already enough for them to win. I mentioned in the preview blog how Drew Brees is dinking and dunking the exact same way Bridgewater was, and this game was no different. Brees didn’t complete a single pass over 20 yards and had an aDOT of just 4.7. Luckily, Alvin Kamara was a play-maker in space and Michael Thomas was always open. Kamara ended up gaining 5.8 yards per carry and caught 10 passes for 47 yards while Thomas caught 8 balls for 114 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston was playing exactly like Jameis Winston, completing just 59% of his passes and throwing 4 picks.

Isn’t it nice when they go as predicted?

Final score: New Orleans 34, Tampa Bay 17

Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Wager: KC -3.5
Cover Probability: 51.55%
Cover Edge: -1.58%

We move onto the Monday night game, where the Chiefs were taking on the Chargers in Mexico. If Pat Mahomes didn’t help us complete the sweep I would have cried myself to sleep. My hero cannot let me down.

Things didn’t exactly bounce our way in this one, as the Chiefs lost dynamic play-maker Tyreek Hill early in the second quarter. I wrote about how the Chiefs offense was finally fully healthy (they also had their entire offensive line back for the first time since week 2), and that’s why I was so optimistic about their chances here. Then Hill got hurt, Pat Mahomes was playing like crap (he gained just 5.7 yards per attempt and completed just 59% of his passes), and the aforementioned healthy offensive line looked like dog shit.

Luckily, the Chiefs defense was here to save us. Frank Clark got his hands on Phil Rivers’s arm as he was throwing, which sent the pass directly into the hands of Derrick Nnadi. Tyrann Mathieu locked eyes on Rivers and jumped a route for an easy interception. Rashad Fenton and Daniel Sorendson also had picks. That put the Chiefs in favorable field positions where they were able to capitalize and jump out to a 24-9 lead. Rivers was able to get one back in the third, but then a scoreless 4th shut the door on the game.

When you’re running hot, you win even when things don’t go your way.

Final score: Kansas City 24, LA Chargers 17

After a perfect week 11 we’re now sitting at 59%. In our group chats, Dom is the king of pouncing on any short sample stats that are unsustainable, so I feel as though I’m forced to do the same. Naturally, we don’t expect to hit 59% long term. Our back testing put the model at just ahead of the vig on closing lines, and we think by getting bets in early, making manual adjustments, and line shopping you can grind out an extra percentage point or so. Either way, part of the fun of gambling is enjoying the hot streaks. We hope you’ve been following our bets and continue to do so. We’ll see you next week.

2019 YTD: 16 – 11 (59%)
Week 11: Our Win Rate is Unsustainable (3-0)
Week 10: No Action (0-0)
Week 9: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game (0-1)
Week 8: Betting Crap Teams Pays Off, Apparently (2-0)
Week 7: The Chargers Killed Our Perfect Week (3-1)
Week 6: The Money Train Has Been Temporarily Derailed (0-2)
Week 5: Back on Track (2-0)
Week 4: I hate Kellen Moore (1-1)
Week 3: The Tilt is Real (1-3)
Week 2: Is 0-3 bad? (0-3)
Week 1: Is 4-0 bad? (4-0)

That’s it for now, bitches.


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