Week 4 Recap: We’re in the Red

Welcome to the recap blog, where we’ll take a look at the results from our previous weeks bets, as well as keep a running season total of our win loss record. Week to week results aren’t important, but I always liked the idea of tracking our bets to see how the season is going as well as providing full transparency to our readers. Let’s get into it:

Denver @ NY Jets (+1)
When the model threw this bet, I thought two things:
1) Fuck me, I do not want to care about this shit show of a football game
2) Yeah, but Sam Darnold getting a point at home against Brett Rypien, a 2019 UDFA from Boise State who was making his first career start does make a ton of sense.

That line ended up shifting to the other direction, closing with the Jets as a 1 point favorite. So I buckled in.

The game was full of bad football. The Jets were dead set on taking as many roughing the passer penalties as possible, there was bad sacks that should never happen, missed tackles, interceptions, you name it. Denver held a lead for most of the game until Jets CB Pierre Desir returned a Brett Rypien errant pass for a touchdown, which brought the Jets within 2. On the next drive, Rypien threw his third pick, which the Jets were able to turn into a field goal, giving them a 28-27 lead. However, after a Broncos field goal, the Jets were unable to answer back and turned it over on downs. Melvin Gordon finished off the game with a 43 yards touchdown run.

Final score: Denver 37, NY Jets 28

Arizona (-3.5) @ Carolina
In a game that featured two God-awful defenses, we more or less expected this to be a shootout. Unfortunately for us, the only offense participating in the shootout was the team we bet against.

Per usual, we recommended our bets on Tuesday. We got some tough news Wednesday that DeAndre Hopkins had an ankle injury, which resulted in him not practicing all week and getting slapped with the questionable tag. The box score watchers will note that Hopkins ran a route on 34/37 Kyler Murray drop backs and had 9 targets, but it’s worth noting that 7 of those targets came within 10 yards and his PFF grade of 60.3 was by far the worst of his season. Call me a complainer, but I don’t think he was 100%. Even still, the Cardinals curiously struggled — they were only able to muster up 3 red zone trips all game (to their credit, they scored on all 3). Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers were able to impose their will, en route to an easy 10 point victory.

Final score: Carolina 31, Arizona 21

Seattle (-6.5) @ Miami
Though this was a relatively easy win for us, it was still a frustrating one. The Seahawks had two trips to the red zone resulting in zero points, one of them being an interception by Dolphins CB Xavien Howard. Tyler Lockett had a tough drop that would have resulted in a big play. The Dolphins just wouldn’t die.

But alas, they did. Russ Wilson continued his MVP season by completing 70.6% of his passes, good for 10.6 yards per attempt. On the ground, Chris Carson gained 5.0 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions and only completed 64.4% of his passes. Drops and turnovers aside, when the two QBs are playing on such different levels, the better QB is bound to pull away.

Final score: Seattle 31, Miami 23

Cleveland @ Dallas (-4.5)
This was just fucking ugly. My one big concern going in was Myles Garrett picking on the right tackle position for the Cowboys, which has been a major, major weakness for Dallas since RT La’el Collins has been out. The Browns intelligently had Myles Garrett line up on the left side on 56/60 defensive snaps. 2020 UDFA RT Terrence Steele was benched after allowing 3 pressures on 13 pass blocking snaps, and Garrett ended up with 8 pressures and two sacks. This is just a brag from me, this didn’t matter at all for the game because the Cowboys were flat out incapable of stopping the Browns offense.

The story was the Browns running game, which gained 307 (!!!) yards on 39 attempts (7.9 average), even after losing starting RB Nick Chubb after just 6 carries (don’t pay running backs, don’t draft them in the early rounds). The Browns rushing EPA of 0.356 for the game is almost unheard of — it was by far the most in the week, second being the Saints at 0.221 (via https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/). Myself and others will talk a lot about how the passing is more efficient than running, but when you’re this efficient on the ground it’s a deadly weapon. The Browns were up 31-14 at the half, which put the Cowboys in an impossible hole to climb back from. To his credit, Dak threw the ball 58 times and still completed 70.7% of his passes, which was good for 8.7 yards per attempt and 502 total yards. It still wasn’t nearly enoguh.

Final score: Cleveland 49, Dallas 38

YTD Record: 8-9
Week 4: We’re in the Red (1-3)
Week 3: Bullshit DPI Calls and a Big L for Us (2-4)
Week 2: The Favorites Deliver (2-1)
Week 1: A Win, Despite Carson Wentz’s best efforts (3-1)

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