Super Bowl Prob Bets That Don’t Suck

We don’t have a model for props, so this isn’t anything too official — my process is essentially to look at various projections and other stats to try to find value. With today being the last day of the football season, I thought we’d have fun and throw out some prop bets.

The lines are taken from this site, which has lines from Draftkings, Fanduel, and Bet MGM. I had to grab the first touchdown line from Betonline, as the site I referenced above did not have any lines available.

Pat Mahomes under 329.5 -110 (Fan Duel)
Yeah, betting against Mahomes passing yardage sounds incredibly scary, but that’s exactly why you should do it. Keep in mind that people are inherently going to gravitate toward betting the over, and that’s going to push the line upward.

329.5 is simply too high of a line. Most are projecting Mahomes in the 315ish range (give or take). He’s gone under this line in each of his last 4 games, 5 of his last 6, and 10 of his total 17 games this season. To win money, you have to make uncomfortable bets and go against the grain.

Tyreek Hill o5.5 rushing yards +100 (Bet MGM)
This one is a lot more fun, as you could potentially win this bet on a single play. Jet sweeps are essentially a cheat play in the NFL, but teams are hesitant to run them because the receiver ends up running without any blockers. The Super Bowl is a time to forget all that injury worry nonsense. In Hill’s career, he averages 7.6 yards per attempt on designed runs. This season, he’s averaging 7.8 rushing yards per game and 8.3 yards per attempt. Hill also ranked third among wide receivers in rushing yards this season. Even though the Chiefs use also Hardmon as the Jet sweet guy, I could see them shying off after Harmon’s fumble in the conference championship, instead preferring the more explosive Hill.

Tom Brady +2.5 passing TDs +120 (Fan Duel)
This one is fairly straight forward — the projections for Brady are sitting at 2.5, so taking dog odds on either side is preferable. The Bucs are underdogs and the Chiefs offense is a wagon — there really aren’t many scenarios where Brady won’t need to throw a lot of passes, and with passes comes touchdown opportunities. In the last 5 weeks, Tom Brady has thrown the ball to the end zone 22 times, most in the league.

Darrel Williams u34.5 rushing yards -167 (Bet MGM)
This number is simply too high. With CEH and Lev Bell both healthy, I’m expecting a 3 way split (haha, 3 way) at RB carries. Prior to week 16 (when Edwards-Helaire was healthy), Williams went all over this total once. This number is in the high twenties at other books, so I’m willing to take it even with the juice.

Travis Kelce to score first TD (+600) (My Bookie)
As mentioned in the preview blog, the Bucs are bad against tight ends (25th in DVOA). In the last two weeks, Kelce is second in the league in red zone targets with 8. The Bucs, who did not have speedy corner Jamel Dean last time around, should sell out to stop Tyreek Hill after getting torched by him in week 12.

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