Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value.
Houston @ Baltimore (+9.0)
Line closed: BAL -10.0, line moved away from the model
The game was tied at the half (10-10), but Houston was unable to generate any offense against the leagues best defense. The lone touchdown from Houston came off a punt return, which Steven Sims took 67 yards to the house. They were held to 0 second half points while the Ravens figured things out offensively in the second half, enabling them to comftorably pull away.
Final score: Baltimore 34, Houston 10
Result: LOSS
Green Bay (+9.5) @ San Francisco
Line closed: SF -10.5, line moved away from the model
The future is bright in Green Bay. They were able to keep this game close throughout, even winning with 6:21 to go in the 4th as Packers kicker Anders Carlson lined up for a 41 yard field goal. The kick missed wide left, and Brock Purdy then generated a 12 play, 69 yard drive that resulted in a touchdown, giving San Francisco a 24-21 lead. A Jordan Love threw a Farve-esque across his body, to the other side of the field interception that sealed things.
Final score: San Francisco 24, Green Bay 21
ATS recap: 1-1, with both lines moving away from the model. If I cared about 2 game samples I'd be quite displeased.
Props recap:
Lamar Jackson u53.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Jackson ran for 100 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Jordan Love u0.5 interceptions +150 (Bet365): Love threw 2 picks. LOSS -1 unit
Aaron Jones u68.5 rushing yards -110 (FanDuel): Jones ran for 108 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Jared Goff o0.5 rushing yards +104 (Caesars): Goff ran for 6 yards. WIN +1.04 units
Josh Reynolds u42.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Reynolds had 27 receiving yards. WIN +0.88 units
Mike Evans o5.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings): Evans caught 8 balls. WIN +1.24 units
Sam Laporta o4.5 receptions +125 (Bet365): Laporta caught 9 balls. WIN +1.25 units
Pat Mahomes u1.5 passing TDs +124 (DraftKings): Mahomes threw 2 touchdowns. LOSS -1 unit
Josh Allen u44.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Allen ran for 72 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Travis Kelce u62.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Kelce had 75 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Isiah Pacheco u19.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Pacheco had 14 receiving yards. WIN +0.91 units
Final tally: 5-6, -0.68 units
Final tally: 3-6, -2.88 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Week 13 Recap: Jake Browning Fucks
Week 14 Recap: Monday Madness Decides Our Fate
Week 15 Recap: The Cowboys Sucked
Week 16 Recap: The Raiders Defense Sneaky Doesn't Suck
Week 17 Recap: One Win, One Loss, One Push
Week 18 Recap: We're Onto the Playoff
Wildcard Recap: The NFC East Was Exposed
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 12: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Week 14: 2-2
Week 15: 1-2
Week 16: 3-3
Week 17: 1-1-1
Week 18: 0-3
Wildcard: 3-2
Divisional: 1-1
Total: 35-39-1
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Week 14: 5-7, -2.54 units
Week 15: 3-10, -7.10 units
Week 16: 5-4, +0.66 units
Week 17: 5-7, -2.42 units
Week 18: 4-5, -1.27 units
Wildcard: 3-6, -2.88 units
Divisional: 5-6, -0.68 units
Total: 99-111, -13.74 units