The bets are determined by checking a wide variety of projections against my own knowledge of how players will be utilized given game context. The player prop lines were taken from this site.
When analyzing projections from fantasy sites, you'll often find that the projections are higher than betting lines, which will make you bet shit tons of overs. This is a common mistake. The projections are mean based, while the betting lines are median. Mean projections tend to skew higher because the range of outcomes are not evenly distributed. (i.e., a running back on a good day could go for over 100 yards, but he would never go under 0... hopefully). If you find a mean projection lower than the Vegas line, the under is likely a good bet. To bet an over, the mean projection should be significantly higher. All bets below will follow that logic.
Sunday 1PM Slate
Malik Willis o162.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): Willis gets the start over the injured Jordan Love going up against the Colts. The low total (40.5) and line (IND -2.5) are reflective of Willis's play, but the market is still too low on Willis, as they often are for backup quarterbacks. BetMGM's line of 166.5 is sharper.
Jacoby Brissett o181.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): Brissett's Patriots are 3.5 point dogs to the Seahawks, although our model prefers the Pats at that number. Either way, projections show that this number is too low. Most books are offering 183 - 185 for Brissett.
Derek Carr o215.5 passing yards -117 (Caesars): Carr is playing behind a medicore-at-best offensive line facing off against a gruesome Cowboys pass rush. However, the line (NO +6.5) and total (46.5) show that the Saints will have plenty of yards through the air. Most projections have Carr in the mid 230s.
Jonanathan Taylor u80.5 rushing yards -110 (DraftKings): As mentioned above, the Colts caught a break in the schedule thanks to Jordan Love's injury, but this number is still too high.
Evan Engram u4.5 receptions +106 (FanDuel): Engram has a tough task against a Browns defense that held TE Jake Ferguson to 3 catches for 15 yards last week.
Sunday 4PM Slate
Trey McBride o5.5 receptions +120 (BetMGM): This number is right where McBride's number though be, I'm happy to take dog odds on either side. The Rams linebackers and safety's struggle from a coverage standpoint.
Rashee Rice o6.5 receptions +115 (DraftKings): Rice showed that he's still the top receiver in Kansas City even with the additions of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, the latter of whom is still injured. Rice is playing against the Bengals with a healthy game total of 48.