Recommended Wager: Dallas @ Arizona (+12.5)

· Brady,Week 3 2023,Recommended Wager

Dallas @ Arizona (+12.5)
Power rankings: Dallas 1, Arizona 31

There isn't too much to say about this one. The Cowboys are the best team in football, per my power rankings, which remain the unquestioned, universal truth for ranking NFL teams. You quite literally can't dispute a single team in regards to their ranking. The Cardinals have shot up the rankings, moving from 32 last week all the way to 31 this week. The model thinks 12.5 is too many points, and I simply work for the model.

Keys to the game - when Dallas has the ball:

The Dallas Cowboys boast one of the most formidable offenses in football. Their strength lies in the synergy of their offensive line, receiving corps, and running game, resulting in a well-rounded and highly efficient offensive unit. Dak Prescott, despite occasional debates about his abilities, proves time and again that he possesses the skill and adaptability needed to successfully lead an offense with such proficient and cohesive components. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have one of the worst defenses in football, and just lost arguably their best player (S Budda Baker, hamstring). I don't have anything nice to say about any of them, so I'll just move on.

When the Cardinals have the ball:

After a horrendous week 1 start, Josh Dobbs bounced back against the Giants, completing 67.7% of his passes while gaining 7.4 yards per attempt, good for a 76.7 PFF grade. Expectations for consistent high-level play from Dobbs would be far too much, but it was at least a pleasant sign that Dobbs - who joined the Cardinals late in training camp - has at least mastered the Cardinals offense and gained some respect in the locker-room.

However, his upcoming matchup presents a formidable challenge. Despite the Arizona Cardinals' offensive line showing improvement, particularly with the standout play of 6th overall pick RT Parris Johnson Jr., who has yet to allow a sack or QB hit this season, they face a tough test against the dynamic pass-rushing duo of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence from the Cowboys. I'd argue that Parsons/Lawrence are the best pass rushing duo in football, and I fear for Dobbs's overall health.

The Cardinals receivers - Hollywood Brown, Rondale Moore, and TE Zach Ertz represents an impressive collection of mediocrity. They'll have issues getting open against the Cowboys secondary, even after CB Trevon Diggs tore his ACL in practice this week. RB James Conner is PFF's 2nd highest graded back so far this season, but his involvement is likely to be minimal given the mismatch in the trenches and overall game script.