Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Miami @ NY Jets (+10.0)
Line closed: MIA -9.5, line moved toward the model
The Jets defense was unable to contain the Dolphins offense. Both Jaylen Waddle (8 catches for 114 yards) and Tyreek Hill (9 for 102) went over 100 yards, while the Dolphins running game earned 4.5 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns on 37 attempts. Tua Tagovailoa averaged just 2.18 seconds to throw, a quick passing strategy that led to a clean pocket on 87.9% of dropbacks. It was predictable that the Jets weren't going to be able to do more on offense, but we needed the defense to perform better in order to cover.
Final score: Miami 34, NY Jets 13
Result: LOSS
New Orleans (Pick Em) @ Atlanta
Line closed: NO -2.0, line moved toward the model
The Saints offense had some success via Chris Olave (7 catches for 114 yards), but Olave suffered a concussion in the third quarter. The Saints passing attack had seemingly no other options, with gadget player Taysom Hill second on the team in receiving yards. Atlanta pulled away in the 4th after a Bijan Robinson touchdown made it 21-12. New Orleans had some chances in their final two drives, but were unable to convert them into touchdowns.
Final score: Atlanta 24, New Orleans 15
Result: LOSS
LA Rams (Pick Em) @ Arizona
Line closed: LAR -3.0, line moved toward the model
The Rams won. By a lot. Kyren Williams, in his first game back since week 12, had 143 yards on the ground and 61 yards/2 touchdowns in the air.
Final score: LA Rams 37, Arizona 14
Result: WIN
Buffalo (+3.5) @ Philadelphia
Line closed: PHI -2.5, line moved toward the model
I could spend an entire blog on this game along. It was arguably the game of the year, with two heavy weights going back and forth, ultimately needing extra time to decide the game.
The Bills took a 31-28 lead with 1:52 left in the 4th, thanks to a Josh Allen touchdown pass to Gabe Davis. However, the Eagles were able to force overtime via a Jake Elliot 59 yard field goal.
We've been in a situation before where we had a team +3.5 going into overtime. It's one of the better spots you can be in, since anything other than an Eagles touchdown is a win for us. Further, in the event that Buffalo kicks a field goal and Philly wins via a touchdown, they do NOT kick the extra point, and the final score would end up with Philadelphia winning by 3 - aka, we still cover.
Spoiler alert: that's exactly what happened.
Final score: Philly 37, Buffalo 34
Result: WIN
Chicago @ Minnesota (-3.5)
Line closed: MIN -2.5, line moved away from the model
I hate everything about this game.
Final score: Chicago 12, Minnesota 10
Result: LOSS
Props recap:
David Montgomery u66.5 rushing yards -105 (DraftKings): Montgomery had 71 yards rushing. LOSS -1 unit
Jake Ferguson u3.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings): Ferguson caught 1 pass. WIN +1.24 units
Brock Purdy u1.5 touchdown passes +112 (FanDuel): Purdy threw for 1 touchdown pass. WIN +1.12 units
Jake Browning o208.5 passing yards -101 (Caesars): Browning threw for 227 yards. WIN +0.99 units
Tommy DeVito o175.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): DeVito had 191 yards passing. WIN +0.99 units
CJ Stroud u272.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Stroud had 304 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Trevor Lawrence u258.5 passing yards -103 (Caesars): Lawrence had 364 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Gardner Minshew u245.5 passing yards -115 (PointBet): Minshew had 251 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Diontae Johnson u55.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Johnson had 50 yards. WIN +0.99 units
Adam Thielen u67.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Thielen had 2 - yes, 2 yards. WIN +.091 units
Calvin Ridley u60.5 receiving yards -115 (BetMGM): Ridley had 89 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Michael Pittman u5.5 receptions +124 (DraftKings): Pittman caught 10 balls. LOSS -1 unit
Dorian Thompson-Robinson o170.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): DTR was unfortunately injured mid game. He finished with 134 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Keaton Mitchell u42.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): MItchell had 64 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Props recap: 6-8, -1.99 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 12: 2-3
Total: 22-23
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Total: 64-60, +3.71 units