Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Seattle (+9.0) @ Dallas
Line closed: DAL -9.5, line moved away from the model
We kicked off the week with a relatively sweat-free win, with the Seahawks keeping pace with the Cowboys. Seattle utilized the quick passing game - Geno Smith's average time to throw of 2.31 seconds was far quicker than his season average of 2.76 seconds - to keep the Cowboys elite pass rush in check. Smith was still under pressure on 38.1% of dropbacks, but quicker passes gave Smith 26 dropbacks from a clean pocket. DK Metcalf was also uncoverable in the end zone, grabbing 3 touchdowns to go along with 6 catches for 134 yards. The Cowboys were the better team and ultimately won the game, but the Seattle offense did more than enough to keep things close.
Final score: Dallas 41, Seattle 35
Result: WIN
Arizona @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Line closed: PIT -6.0, line moved toward the model
Against one of the worst defenses in football, the Steelers punted 4 times, missed a field goal, fumbled, and turned the ball over on downs from the Arizona 1. They also had no answers for Trey McBride (8 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown) or James Conner (25 carries for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns). Simply put: Pittsburgh played like ass.
Final score: Arizona 24, Pittsburgh 10
Result: LOSS
Detroit @ New Orleans (+4.0)
Line closed: DET -4.0, line stayed the same
The Lions put up 21 points on their first 3 drives, and led 24-7 at the half. New Orleans slowly crawled back, ultimately bringing the game within 5, but couldn't get anything going on their final drive, ultimately turning the ball over on downs from the Detroit 40.
Several Saints played well offensively, including Taysom goddamn Hill, who finished with 13 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, the Saints defense had no answer for rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (9 catches, 140 yards, and a touchdown) or the Lions running game (collectively 30 carries for 142 yards and 2 scores). CB Paulson Adebo, currently in the middle of a breakout year, had his worst game of the season, which included missing a tackle, committing a penalty, and giving up 4 catches for 91 yards.
Final score: Detroit 33, New Orleans 28
Result: LOSS
Cincinnati (+8.5) @ Jacksonville
Line closed: JAX -10.0, line moved away from the model
Jake Browning completed 32/37 (86.5%) of passes, gaining 354 yards (9.6 YPA) and a touchdown, good for a 90.1 grade from PFF. Browning hit 8 different receivers, but his favorite target was Ja'Marr Chase, who had 11 catches for 149 yards and a touchdown.
Trevor Lawrence suffered a sprained ankle with 5 minutes to go in the 4th, but since the game was tied at that point we were going to cover anyway. The game ended up going into overtime, with a Evan McPherson nailing a 48 yard field goal for a Cincy win.
Final score: Cincy 34, Jacksonville 31 (OT)
Result: WIN
Sides recap: 2-2. Interestingly, we had 3 QB injuries in the games we bet on, with two coming from teams we bet on (Kenny Pickett and Derek Carr) and one going for a team we bet against (Trevor Lawrence). That said, I don't think any of the injuries mattered much in terms of the outcome of the game. A 2-2 record is whatever, but I'm mostly disappointed we had some lines move away from the model.
Gardner Minshew u236.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Minshew had 312 yards passing. LOSS -1 unit
Bailey Zappe o201.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel): Zappe threw for 141 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Will Levis u18.5 completions +110 (DraftKings): Levis had 16 completions. WIN +1.1 units
Brian Robinson o40.5 rushing yards -115 (DraftKings): Robinson had 53 yards rushing. WIN +0.87 units
Zack Moss u78.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Moss had 51 yards rushing. WIN +0.91 units
Breece Hall o52.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Hall had 16 yards. Ouch. LOSS -1 unit
Courtland Sutton u58.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM): Sutton had 2 catches, for 77 fucking yards. LOSS -1 unit
Amon-Ra St. Brown o7.5 receptions +120 (DraftKings): ARSB had 2 catches. LOSS -1 unit
Matthew Stafford u225.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Stafford threw for 279 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Jordan Love o20.5 completions +100 (DraftKings): Love had 25 completions. WIN +1 unit
Ja'Marr Chase o57.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Chase hit this over on a single 76 yard touchdown grab. He finished with 149 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Final tally: 5-6, -1.21 units
Previous Recaps:
Week 1 Recap: That's How You Start the Year
Week 2 Recap: Head Coach ATS Record Matters
Week 3 Recap: The Tanking Cardinals are ATS Gods
Week 4 Recap: Mahomes Slides, Ertz Can't Catch
Week 5 Recap: Another Even Week
Week 6 Recap: Our First Losing Week
Week 7 Recap: We Bet One Game. We Lost One Game
Week 8 Recap: We Bet Three Games. We Lost Three Games
Week 9 Recap: Trust the Fucking Process
Week 10 Recap: Continue Trusting the Fucking Process
Week 11 Recap: I Hope You Trusted the Fucking Process
Week 12 Recap: No Extra Points In Overtime
Sides record:
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Week 8: 0-3
Week 9: 0-2
Week 10: 0-2
Week 11: 5-1
Weel 13: 2-3
Week 13: 2-2
Total: 24-25
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Week 8: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 9: 7-5, +1.95 units
Week 10: 5-5, -0.38 units
Week 11: 5-6, -1.53 units
Week 12: 6-8, -1.99 units
Week 13: 5-6 -1.21 units
Total: 69-66, +2.50 units