Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value.
Indianapolis (+2.5) @ Jacksonville
Strength: 2.72
Power rankings: Indy 19, Jax 25
Line closed: JAX -3.5, line moved away from the model
Result: LOSS
Las Vegas @ Denver (-2.5)
Strength: 2.06
Power rankings: LV 26, DEN 21
Line closed: DEN -3.0, line moved toward the model
Result: WIN
Recap: A 1-1 week, with our loss also showing some tough closing line value (2.5 to 3.5 against us) and our win showing some outstanding closing line value (2.5 to 3 toward us). We recommended the Colts line despite the fact that Anthony Richardson (oblique) was very questionable, with conservative estimates giving Richardson a 50/50 chance to play. We green-lit the game anyway - based mostly on the quality in backup that the Colts have in Joe Flacco. Flacco most recently came off the touch to transform the Browns offense, ultimately leading them to the playoffs. Flacco played excellent in this game - going 33/44 (75%) for 359 yards (8.2 average) with 3 touchdowns and zero picks, good for a 90.0 PFF game grade. Flacco is almost certianly far too old to lead a team for an entire season, but I remain steadfast in my belief that there isn't a large difference in the Colts offense when he's under center when needed - clearly the market disagrees.
Props recap:
Aaron Jones u64.3 rushing yards -113 (FanDuel): WIN
Tyler Huntley o160.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): LOSS
Diontae Johnson o5.5 receptions +115 (Bet365): LOSS
Daniel Jones o181.5 passing yards -113 (FanDuel): WIN
Gardner Minshew o187.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): LOSS
Kyren Williams u83.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): LOSS
Josh Jacobs u67.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): LOSS
Colby Parkinson u36.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): LOSS
George Pickens o4.5 receptions +120 (Bet365): LOSS
Final tally: 3-6, -3.35 units
We had some injury luck with Aaron Jones leaving the game, guaranteeing his under hit. At the same time, Minshew was unforuntaley benched, although he and backup Aidan O'Connell did combine for over 215 yards, which would have easily cleared the over.
Sides record:
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 2-2
Week 3: 1-0
Week 4: 2-2
Week 5: 1-1
Total: 10-8
Props record:
Week 1: 5-4, +0.43 units
Week 2: 2-5 -2.95 units
Week 3: 5-3, +1.23 units
Week 4: 0-0, even
Week 5: 3-6, -3.35 units
Total: 15-18, -4.54 units