Welcome to the recap blog. Weekly results are a silly thing to track -- the small sample and high variance nature of the NFL makes them totally irrelevant. However, it's always fun looking back at how the games went, and I like to see where we had closing line value. For a more technical overview of our results, check the results page.
Green Bay (-1.0) @ Denver
Line closed: DEN -1.5, line moved away from the model
I wrote a lot about how badly Denver's defense has performed this season in the preview blog, but I also mentioned that their run of god-awful defense would eventually regress in a positive direction. I think the Broncos personnel on defense is too good to be playing at historically bad levels, but even if things move in the right direction, they're still likely performing poorly. The defense has been THAT bad.
What I didn't expect is a complete and total turnaround. The Broncos shut out the Packers in the first half (partially thanks to a missed 43 yard field goal). DE Baron Browning had 4 pressures on just 17 pass-rushing snaps. DT Zach Allen had 3 pressures and 3 stops in the run game. CB Fabian Moreau was targeted 5 times, allowing just 2 catches for 7 yards and a pass breakup. Meanwhile, Russ Wilson also played well - completing 69% of his passes, gaining 6.7 yards per attempt, and earning a 78.9 PFF game grade. He hit Courtland Sutton 6 games for 76 yards and a touchdown. The Packers kept things close and had a shot at the end, but the Broncos were simply the better team.
Final score: Denver 19, Green Bay 17
Result: LOSS
Props recap:
Mac Jones o178.5 passing yards -115 (BetMGM): Mac Jones finished with 272 passing yards. That'll work. WIN +0.87 units
Tyson Bagent o181.5 passing yards -110 (Bet365): Bagent had 162 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Jonathan Taylor o43.5 rushing yards -110 (Bet365): Taylor finished with 75 yards. WIN +0.91 units
Chris Godwin u59.5 receiving yards -110 (Bet365): Godwin had 66 yards receiving. LOSS -1 unit
Amon-Ra St. Brown o6.5 receptions +105 (BetMGM): Amon-Ra caught 13 footballs on Sunday. WIN +1.05 units
Jaleel McLaughlin u35.5 rushing yards -120 (PointBet): McLaughlin had 45 yards. LOSS -1 unit
Cooper Kupp u92.5 receiving yards -114 (FanDuel): Kupp had 29 yards receiving. WIN +0.88 units
Keenan Allen o7.5 receptions +130 (DraftKings): Allen caught just 4 balls. LOSS -1 unit
Pat Mahomes o2.5 passing TDs +160 (Bet365): Mahomes had 4 touchdown passes. WIN +1.6 units
Geno Smith o0.5 interceptions +190 (Bet365): Smith threw 1 interception. WIN +1.9 units
Tyreek Hill o6.5 receptions -130 (FanDuel): This one hit in the first half. Hill finished with 11 catches. WIN +0.77 units
Props recap: 7-4, +3.98 units. Much better
Week 1: 5-1
Week 2: 3-3
Week 3: 2-1
Week 4: 3-3
Week 5: 1-1
Week 6: 1-2
Week 7: 0-1
Total: 15-12
Props Record
Week 1: 5-3, +1.43 units
Week 2: 5-5, -0.29 units
Week 3: 4-5, -0.52 units
Week 4: 6-4, +2.94 units
Week 5: 4-5, -1.4 units
Week 6: 5-5, -0.24 units
Week 7: 7-4, +3.98 units
Total: 36-31, +5.89 units